Regional tensions across the Middle East remain elevated, and the operational impact on both ocean freight and air transport continues to intensify. For shippers moving cargo through Gulf and Asia–Europe corridors, the situation remains fluid, with ongoing disruption expected across transit times, routing reliability and freight rates.
Strait of Hormuz Effectively Closed to Commercial Shipping
The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed to most commercial vessels, with Iranian military forces enforcing restrictions across the waterway. Ship traffic through the strait has dropped by an estimated 91%, leaving significant cargo volumes delayed across Gulf anchorages.
Many vessels are currently awaiting instructions to either discharge cargo locally, reroute via alternative hubs or divert onto longer contingency routings. This is creating mounting congestion across regional ports and placing further pressure on global container capacity.
France has announced plans to deploy 10 additional naval vessels to support commercial escort operations, though the mission has not yet commenced. Until additional security measures are fully operational, carriers are expected to remain cautious with scheduling decisions.
Limited Gulf Services Resume but Capacity Remains Restricted
Some intra-Gulf services have partially resumed, particularly lanes serving Iraq. However, available capacity remains constrained, and reliability across these services remains inconsistent.
Shippers should expect continued volatility in vessel schedules, extended dwell times at origin ports and pressure on feeder networks across the region.
Air Freight Disruption Adds Further Pressure
Air cargo operations have also been affected. Dubai International Airport (DXB) temporarily suspended operations on 7 March following a drone-related incident near Terminal 3. Although flights have resumed, airlines including Emirates, Etihad and flydubai continue operating reduced schedules across several routes.
European aviation authorities have extended regional airspace safety guidance, meaning airlines remain cautious, with longer routings, reduced frequencies and ongoing capacity constraints expected in the near term.
What This Means for Shippers
The combined disruption across ocean and air freight is expected to drive continued volatility across rates, capacity and transit reliability in the coming weeks. Businesses moving cargo through Middle East corridors should:
• Build additional lead time into supply chain planning
• Expect upward pressure on ocean and air freight rates
• Monitor routing options closely with logistics partners
• Prioritise urgent cargo for available air allocations where required
Outlook
While limited regional services are slowly resuming, the broader outlook remains uncertain. Until security conditions stabilise and network capacity returns, disruption should be treated as ongoing.
We continue monitoring developments closely and will provide further operational updates as the situation evolves.