Middle East Freight Update: Air Stabilising, Ocean Risks Rising, Road Holding Steady
Freight conditions across the Middle East are beginning to normalise in some areas while deteriorating in others. Air cargo is gradually stabilising as capacity returns, but ocean freight is facing growing disruption linked to regional security incidents and operational congestion. Road freight remains the most predictable mode for now, though some delays are emerging.
Below is a breakdown of the current situation and what shippers should expect over the coming days.
Air Freight: Gradual Stabilisation, But Tight Capacity Persists
Air freight conditions are starting to stabilise as airlines slowly reintroduce routes and destinations across the region. That said, capacity remains constrained and recovery is uneven across lanes.
Operational disruption earlier this week followed reports of two drones linked to Iran near Dubai International Airport. UAE authorities confirmed both were intercepted and destroyed, though earlier reports suggested they had fallen near airport infrastructure. Airport operations resumed shortly afterwards, but not before widespread knock-on effects across global air networks.
Airlines are now working through a substantial backlog after thousands of flight cancellations, and this is feeding into continued pressure on available uplift.
What this means for shippers:
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Booking lead times remain extended and will likely stay that way through the week.
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Spot pricing continues to fluctuate in a no-publish rate environment.
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Priority cargo is moving, but general freight is experiencing rollovers on key lanes.
In practical terms, planning windows need to widen. Where possible, shippers should confirm bookings earlier than usual and maintain flexibility on routings and uplift dates.
Ocean Freight: Escalating Risk and Routing Complexity
Ocean freight conditions are deteriorating as congestion builds and security concerns intensify across key maritime corridors.
Pressure is increasing at Khor Fakkan, where operational strain is expected to worsen if diversions accelerate. Carriers and forwarders are now actively evaluating alternative gateway strategies, with Salalah and Jeddah emerging as the most viable contingency options for regional transshipment.
Security risks also escalated this week following multiple reported incidents at sea. UK Maritime Trade Operations confirmed three separate cargo vessels were struck by “unknown projectiles” near Dubai and in the Strait of Hormuz. One vessel caught fire and is being evacuated; another reported no injuries or environmental damage. Authorities have advised vessels transiting the region to proceed with heightened caution while investigations continue.
Implications for supply chains:
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Routing complexity is increasing as carriers adjust schedules and risk profiles.
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Congestion-related delays are likely to spread beyond the Gulf into connected trade lanes.
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Insurance exposure and war risk surcharges may come into sharper focus.
For shippers moving through the region, it’s prudent to review contingency routing now rather than react later. Early coordination with carriers and forwarders will be key to avoiding reactive, higher-cost decisions.
Road Freight: Operational but Slower
In contrast, land corridors across the Middle East remain open and broadly functional. Border crossings are operating normally, and there are no widespread closures reported at this stage.
However, some delays are beginning to appear due to secondary effects from air and ocean disruptions, including increased cross-border volume shifts and tighter trucking capacity in certain corridors.
Near-term outlook:
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Transit times remain predictable overall but with some variability.
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Short-term capacity tightness may emerge if modal shifts accelerate.
For time-sensitive regional cargo, road continues to offer the most stable option, particularly where multimodal alternatives face disruption.
Outlook
In the near term, the regional freight environment is likely to remain uneven:
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Air freight will continue stabilising but stay tight on capacity.
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Ocean freight faces the highest uncertainty due to security risk and congestion spillover.
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Road freight remains the most reliable mode, though not immune to pressure.
For most shippers, the right approach now is proactive planning: confirm bookings early, secure backup routings, and stay close to operational updates as conditions evolve.