Urgent Update: Middle East Escalations Impacting Global Air and Ocean Freight Operations

March 2026

Executive Summary

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are now directly impacting global air and ocean freight operations.

As of 28 February to 2 March 2026, major global container carriers have issued formal advisories confirming suspension, rerouting, or severe limitation of services affecting the region.

Two critical global maritime chokepoints are currently affected:

  • The Strait of Hormuz
  • The Suez Canal / Red Sea corridor

As a result:

  • Container shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is suspended.
  • Multiple carriers have rerouted vessels via the Cape of Good Hope.
  • Airspace closures across the region are restricting air cargo capacity.
  • Emergency surcharges and rate escalation are being implemented.
  • Extended transit times and secondary congestion risks are expected globally.

The situation remains dynamic. We are closely monitoring developments and coordinating with carrier and partner networks to mitigate disruption wherever possible.

Ocean Freight Update

Confirmed Carrier Actions

Major global carriers have implemented the following measures:

  • Suspension of transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Suspension of Suez Canal passages by several operators.
  • Rerouting of vessels via the Cape of Good Hope.
  • Temporary suspension of new bookings to the Middle East by certain carriers.
  • Introduction of emergency conflict and war risk surcharges.

Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope adds approximately 10–14 days to transit schedules compared to Suez Canal routing.

These changes materially reduce effective global capacity and are expected to impact adjacent trade lanes, particularly Asia–Europe services.

Port and Vessel Situation

Current operational impacts include:

  • Over 150 tankers and numerous container vessels sheltering in Gulf waters or positioned outside the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Partial shutdowns or operational suspensions at certain Gulf ports.
  • Major container lines discharging Gulf-bound cargo at alternative transhipment hubs including:
    • Salalah (Oman)
    • Khor Fakkan (UAE)
    • Sohar (Oman)
    • Duqm (Oman)
    • Colombo (Sri Lanka)

From these hubs, cargo is being transferred via feeder vessels prepared to undertake higher-risk transits.

Secondary congestion risks are anticipated at major Asia-Pacific hubs such as Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas and Port Klang as capacity shifts to hub-and-spoke models.

Freight Rate and Surcharge Impact

Emergency conflict surcharges have been introduced by major carriers on Gulf and Red Sea trade lanes.

Customers should prepare for:

  • Increased base freight rates
  • Emergency conflict and war risk surcharges
  • Additional feeder and transhipment costs
  • Extended working capital cycles due to longer transit times

Based on historical precedent during the 2023–2024 Red Sea crisis, freight rate increases of significant magnitude are possible if rerouting and security conditions persist.

Air Freight Update

From 28 February 2026, multiple Middle Eastern airspaces have been closed or heavily restricted.

Several airlines have suspended services across the region, impacting key origins, destinations, and transhipment hubs including:

  • Bahrain
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Jordan
  • Kuwait
  • Lebanon
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • United Arab Emirates

Air cargo services across parts of the Middle East are suspended or operating on a limited basis.

Airspace closures and rerouting are reducing available global air freight capacity, creating:

  • Congestion across alternative hubs
  • Reduced uplift availability
  • Potential rate increases
  • Operational backlogs and shipment delays

Disruptions are expected to continue while restrictions remain in place.

Recommended Actions for Customers

To minimise disruption and maintain supply chain resilience:

1. Maintain Flexibility

  • Build flexibility into delivery and pick-up schedules.
  • Prepare for extended lead times of at least 10–14 additional days on ocean freight routes.

2. Review Cost Exposure

  • Model potential freight cost increases and surcharges.
  • Assess working capital implications of prolonged transit times.

3. Enhance Visibility

  • Confirm status of in-transit shipments immediately.
  • Increase communication cadence with suppliers and customers.

4. Evaluate Alternatives

  • Assess temporary air freight solutions for time-sensitive cargo, noting current air restrictions.
  • Consider alternative sourcing or pre-positioning stock where commercially viable.

5. Stay in Contact

  • Maintain close communication with your logistics representative for routing updates and mitigation options.

Escalation Developments and Additional Operational Impact

Booking Suspensions

Most major carriers have now suspended either:

  • All bookings into the Persian Gulf, or
  • Reefer container bookings specifically, reflecting heightened risk exposure for temperature-controlled cargo.

This materially restricts forward capacity planning for both dry and refrigerated shipments.

Security Incidents Impacting Maritime Operations

Recent reported incidents include:

  • A vessel struck by two projectiles in the port of Bahrain, reportedly the US-flagged product tanker Stena Imperative, causing a fire.
  • A drone attack on the port of Duqm (Oman), located outside the Gulf on the Arabian Sea.
  • A missile impacting a British airbase in Cyprus, with additional drone activity intercepted.
  • Israel commencing attacks on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon.

Greece has deployed naval and air assets to Cyprus in support operations. This introduces potential maritime risk considerations in the eastern Mediterranean, including the possibility of expanded war risk surcharges in that region.

Fleet Capacity Trapped Inside the Gulf

According to vessel tracking data:

  • 17 container vessels larger than 4,000 TEU remain inside the Persian Gulf, with a combined capacity of approximately 156,000 TEU.
  • An additional ~50 vessels below 4,000 TEU are also present.

In total, approximately 200,000 TEU of container vessel capacity is currently trapped inside the Gulf.

This trapped fleet would rank as the world’s 13th largest carrier by capacity and represents approximately 0.6% of total global container capacity currently unavailable.

For context, January data indicated the global idle fleet stood at approximately 0.6%. In effect, the Gulf situation has doubled effective idle capacity overnight.

This creates immediate tactical capacity shortages.

Congestion Risk and Secondary Effects

Large aggregations of vessels are currently waiting at anchor at either end of the Strait of Hormuz, with minimal active transits.

If the situation persists beyond a short-term disruption, likely impacts include:

  • Congestion at Asian transhipment hubs
  • Imbalances in equipment positioning
  • Delayed cargo flows similar to early-stage Red Sea crisis dynamics

Continuation of the situation is expected to place upward pressure on spot rates across additional trades beyond the Middle East.

Energy Market Impact and Fuel Surcharges

Oil prices have risen approximately 8–9%.

Given that 20–30% of globally exported oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz, prolonged instability may:

  • Increase bunker fuel prices
  • Trigger higher fuel adjustment factors (BAF)
  • Compound freight rate increases beyond security surcharges alone

Commercial Reality of Emergency Surcharges

Shippers should note that emergency and war risk surcharges are not required to be calculated purely as cost pass-through mechanisms.

Freight pricing is determined by supply and demand dynamics. As seen during the early stages of the Red Sea crisis, surcharge magnitude is influenced by market conditions, available capacity, and competitive positioning — not solely by direct incremental carrier costs.

Forward Outlook

Today marks approximately:

  • Day 834 of the Red Sea crisis
  • Day 3 of the Strait of Hormuz disruption

There is currently no confirmed timeline for full operational normalisation.

If conditions stabilise rapidly, congestion effects may be contained. However, extended disruption will likely result in:

  • Sustained rate escalation across multiple trade lanes
  • Broader war risk premium expansion
  • Equipment dislocation and schedule reliability deterioration
  • Continued capacity shortages due to trapped fleet and rerouting

We will continue to monitor developments closely and provide further updates as the situation evolves.