Executive Summary: The expiration of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on 17 August has left the Strait of Hormuz without a formal de-escalation framework. For logistics and freight forwarding professionals, this means maritime risk remains exceptionally high. Combined with heavily constrained air and ocean freight capacity globally, proactive supply chain planning is paramount. This update analyses current regional risks and provides a strategic transport outlook to help you secure vital capacity.
Regional Risk Remains Critical
Contingency routing, continuity measures, and war-risk safeguards remain fully active across the Middle East. Shippers must monitor the following key watchpoints:
-
Strait of Hormuz: With the MOU expired, no reopening framework is in place, and meaningful increases in commercial shipping have not been confirmed. We advise zero Hormuz bookings until a verified operational agreement is established.
-
Red Sea: Houthi-related risks remain elevated. Saudi Arabia’s maritime coalition is actively moving towards operational planning to address these ongoing threats.
-
UAE Shipping: Reports involving ADNOC-linked tankers remain under intense review following recent security incidents.
-
Iraq: The Kuwait-Iraq corridor remains under enhanced monitoring. The upcoming 30 September disarmament deadline is the primary milestone to watch for regional stability.
Global Freight Market Constraints
Air Freight: Capacity Shortages
Capacity is tightly constrained from South and Southeast Asia, China, and Hong Kong into Europe, the UK, North America, and the Middle East.
-
Demand and Rates: Strong demand continues to put pressure on space, particularly for long-haul routes. Rates remain firm, with premium capacity commanding premium prices.
-
Actionable Advice: Book shipments 5 to 7 days ahead wherever possible to guarantee uplift.
Ocean Freight: Space and Equipment Challenges
Ocean freight is experiencing severe bottlenecks on major export corridors, with carriers strictly controlling allocations.
-
Vessel Space: General Rate Increases (GRIs), cargo rollovers, and late schedule changes are frequent occurrences.
-
Equipment: 40HQ container availability is severely tight at Asian origin ports.
-
Actionable Advice: Early booking is absolutely essential to secure both containers and vessel space.
Strategic Transport Outlook
To maintain supply chain continuity, we recommend the following modal strategies:
-
Air Transport: This remains the most reliable option for urgent cargo. Always confirm flight acceptance prior to booking.
-
Ocean Transport: Cape of Good Hope routing remains the standard contingency option. Jeddah continues to serve as a critical GCC gateway despite ongoing congestion.
-
Road Transport: UAE to Saudi Arabia corridors remain fully operational. Kuwait to Iraq movements require continuous senior routing review.
The Bottom Line: Capacity remains tight, maritime risk remains elevated, and early planning is critical. Customers should secure freight capacity well in advance and maintain all existing contingency measures until geopolitical and market conditions stabilise.